Most of us were wrong when we thought the Nintendo Wii would fall on its face. It has been a smashing success and no one can deny that. We also know Nintendo Wii HD will be on shelves sometime in 2010 or 2011. We know Nintnedo plans to put a big emphasis on DLC, the system will be backwards-compatible and in HD. For several reasons, I have my doubts about the potential success for Nintendo in 2010 or 2011. They are basically going to release the Wii 2 which will be equal or possibly less powerful than the Xbox 360 and Sony PS3. At the time time, it will have to compete against the Sony PS4 and Microsoft Phoenix (720) in the future. I’m sure this system will come with a hard drive and will probably be the Wii 2 that we all wanted the Wii 1 to be.
Here’s the problems:
- Nintendo’s great success with the Wii was due them catering to an extremely casual audience. Even by 2011, the casual Wii users will either “be over” the experience or will still be happy with what they have. I highly doubt casual consumers will drop a big price on the next system.
- The system will basically be a next-generation console in the next-next-generation. They are still going to be behind the curve. If they lose the casual appeal which I think they will, how many people could possibly buy the Wii 2. You didn’t see the original Wii on shelves, but I am betting there will be plenty Wii 2s for grabs when they come out.
At this point, everything we’re talking about is complete speculation. I have to wonder if Nintendo hit their pinnacle already. When the DSi was announced, many assumed their stock would soar, but that wasn’t the case. That obviously indicates that investors may also feel that Nintendo has hit the top and doesn’t have much room for growth. Unless Nintendo finds a way to re-capture the hearts of hard-core gamers everywhere, I think their best days will soon be behind them. They have done a wonderful job creating mass appeal and buzz for the Nintendo Wii beyond anyone’s expectations, but we have to wonder how long it could possibly last. Have they grown too big for their own britches? I think so.
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With that said, I am still looking forward to the Wii 2. I have purchased every Nintendo system ever made and am a fan of many games on the systems. Unfortunately, I don’t think Nintendo is or every will be the #1 gaming option for gamers again. I also feel that their mass appeal may dwindle a bit in the next few years…
The above image is not the Wii 2!
October 3rd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
First, it’s impossible to determine the success or failure of a product that’s not due out for 2 - 3 years.
Will it fail? Potentially. But some of your assumptions just don’t sound right. You’re making a wild guess that casual gamers wouldn’t buy the next gen console. Uhmm why not? Catering to the casual gamer has absolutely nothing to do with the technology. It has everything to do with the way you interact, the focus of the game developers, and the support of the console maker.
The challenge for nintendo in the next release of game consoles is that every one else is going to be doing the same thing. PS4? There is not going to be a huge technology update for them from PS3 to PS4. Rather they are going to minimize the size of the sytsem annnnd… focus on the casual gamer.XBox720? Same thing… they are looking over at nintendo who released a minimum tech upgrade and are financially reaping rewards and saying “damn… we screwed up.”
October 3rd, 2008 at 1:07 pm
The success of the Wii had everything to do with catering to casual gamers. It definitely has something to do with the technology. If you look at it, technology-wise, the Wii was obsolete the day it was released (from a technology standpoint that is).
I also didn’t say this was definitely going to happen. Everything is speculation at this point as I mentioned.
I do think Microsoft and Sony may be able to learn some things from the Wii launch and it’s success, but I doubt they will gear things up with the casual gamer completely in mind. Just because something was a huge success once does not mean it will be the same success 2nd time around.
It will be interesting to follow what happens in the next couple of years. When it comes to casual gaming (in the next couple of years), I actually think the iPhone and iPod Touch will be big players.
I could be wrong, but I really don’t think Nintendo could possibly match their current success in the future. With HD and an assortment of upgrades, I highly doubt the system will debut at $250. The current attraction to the Wii (from general consumers) is that it’s seemingly the cheapest console on the market. That point can be argued too but people want it because it’s “cool” and relatively cheap.
October 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
By 2011 the parts required will be cheap, therefore it will be able to hit the sweet spot of $250.
October 3rd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
I have yet to meet anyone that has bought, or wants to buy, a Wii who has mentioned price as the reason they bought it. They buy it for the family and for the unique way to interact with games. Plus you base some of your opinion on the cost of hardware today instead of 2-3 years down the road. Adding HD ability and a hard drive to Wii 2 will be cheaper for Nintendo to do 2-3 years from now compared to what it would have cost them to include those features when they were designing the Wii 3+ years ago. Nintendo has always made money on their consoles and they have literally tons of cash. They can compete. Their problem is the same as its always been. They don’t have the best relationships with 3rd party developers that Sony and MS work to grow and cultivate.
October 3rd, 2008 at 1:57 pm
You sure seem to restate a lot of assumptions as facts. You also seem to make the same assumptions about the Wii 2 that were made about the Wii and proven wrong. I’m not saying your forecasts will NOT pan out correctly, but it sounds like you’re falling into the same traps.
You mention it will be equal to or less powerful than the Xbox 360 going up against the next-next-gen. The Wii is currently equal to or less powerful than the Xbox against the current next-gen. This was the argument used currently and hasn’t turned out to mean a darn thing. Perhaps it’ll mean more in the next generation, but this theory’s been disproven once and could be again. Besides, Nintendo’s already made statements about needing to figure out how to bring the same level of new concepts and innovation to the next one or risk losing their image. They know it’s vital to do more than just up the power and leave it at that, and they will.
As for the casual gamers being “over” the phenomenon and/or still happy with what they have, this shows shortsightedness. For one thing, the casual gamers have continually been projected to get over the Wii from even the beginning of its popularity and so far this hasn’t proven accurate. Not saying it WON’T change, but the previous projections of this have yet to bear fruit. As for still happy with the current one, have you ever observed the combination of consumers and marketing? Add new bells and whistles, make it faster, and market it well and something they use and love suddenly turns to crap in their hands. Nobody’s immune to being told their current hardware isn’t as cool as the new version. Ask Apple about this–and iTunes music doesn’t even REQUIRE you to upgrade to a new iPod to play the latest songs like game systems do.
As for your comment about the price, keep in mind the Wii is the most expensive system Nintendo’s ever launched. No prior system in their history has launched for more than $199. And the Wii has a strong profit margin built into it. By 2011/2012 (which you seem quite definite about being its release time frame), with the normal decreases in cost of technology, I see no logical reason why Nintendo can’t build in the improvements you’re expecting and launch the Wii HD at the same price. Just look at the Xbox 360 Arcade hitting $199.99. By then Nintendo could potentially pack that level of functionality with their innovations into a $249.99 price tag complete with their standard high profit margin.
All I’m saying is reading your article, despite your concession about having been proven wrong about the Wii, it seems like a complete rehash of all the arguments made before its release, only with LESS hard facts and even MORE speculation. We’re way too far ahead of the game to have a clue what Nintendo’s working on yet or how the market will change. Give it time.
October 3rd, 2008 at 2:34 pm
@Turbo: I wouldn’t say there’s anything stone cold factual about any of this. We’re still probably 6 months to a year away from hearing anything of real importance from Nintendo.. maybe even longer knowing them lol.
This is just my rough thoughts on the early topic. My assumptions very well could be wrong. I was wrong about the Wii and could be wrong about this. I can’t wait until next year when I can get more facts and data to make up a real opinion.
I do realize it’s a rehash, but it’s a legitimate possibility. Knowing Nintendo, there are certainly secrets in the works that we don’t know about.. so I might be surprised. I hope I am.
October 3rd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
With the Wii Nintendo has done the most important thing that they could do - they have gained, again, the ability to introduce people to their exceptional IP. They have also greatly broadened the palette of the gaming community such that all the big talk is no longer just FF and first person shooters. Now, they are taking some GC classics and updating them to Wii - for the fans, yes, but also to get even more of their IP out there into the hands of future customers.
Fact is, Nintendo, as a publisher, has one of the greatest and most diverse lineups of games, but they were ignored for a long time as gamers focused almost exclusively on driving sims, RPGs, Sports (sims), and First Person Shooters.
It’s time for change… next generation may be a lot easier for Nintendo to keep up on the hardware side… it’s hard to make a reliable AND cost effective HD machine right now. Look at Microsoft’s technical failures and Sony’s huge losses on the PS3. Since ppls televisions probably aren’t going to go past 1080p in time for the next generation, the technology should be a lot more stable by the time Nintendo jumps in. 3rd party developers would be wise to consider them a powerhouse… after all, they are the only console manufacturer that is DEVOTED to gaming… they don’t make TVs or business software.
Having said all this, I think Nintendo will stumble next time around… the casual market is VERY hard to get… being able to do that twice would be incredible. Also, most gamers seem to have very poor taste in games and think that Nintendo titles are for kids…
October 3rd, 2008 at 4:33 pm
wow this seems cool but did you guys here about the new nintendo DS? this website has an article about it. It has a camera and an SD slot.
October 3rd, 2008 at 6:59 pm
This is pure sepculation, just because nintendo spent more on R&D doesn’t mean its going to make a “wii 2.” If I were nintendo, I’d ride this wave as long as I could and keep the wii out longer than five years.
October 3rd, 2008 at 7:33 pm
@anonymous: yes. I’m actually interested in checking out the DSi. I already have a DS and an iPod Touch and a PSP, so I don’t really need any more portable gaming options. Suppose I’ll sell my old DS or something.
The neat thing too is that regular DS units will probably drop in price early 2009, so there will be no excuse to be without a DS if you want one.
October 3rd, 2008 at 7:36 pm
@Daryl: the Wii 2 is a bit more than just speculation. There’s hard evidence that they are developing the HD Wii system. Now it could end up as more of a Wii 1.5, but I doubt it. Personally, I think all systems need to have a longer shelf life. Most systems get phased out long before developers even catch up to the potential.
October 4th, 2008 at 4:21 am
This is a funny article with funny typos. Also, at this point it doesn’t matter what Nintendo puts out. People hear, “Wii 2,” and they’re all over it. Remember when Sony had that power after the success of PS1? Nintendo is now that company-like Apple. Now come the time of Wii 3 (a la PS3) it may be a different story if Nintendo doesn’t continue to adapt.
Really, the biggest problem I have with the articles’ theory is that it’s using the original argument (CPU and tech vs. innovation) as its base. And we ALL know how that turned out. Why would it be any different in the future? People are going to all of a sudden want HD and no Wii controls? Ridiculous.
October 4th, 2008 at 10:37 am
What typos?
I wouldn’t say Nintendo is like Apple at all. Apple only holds about 10% of the computer market the last time I checked. I don’t really see a comparison.
There was also no mention of people wanting HD and no Wii controls. The CPU and tech vs. innovation argument turned out in Nintendo’s favor. We know that. I mentioned that. I also mentioned that I do not think they will have the same success a second time around. Do you think that because something works one time that it will work every time? That’s rediculous.
October 6th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
my understanding was that the wii HD is more like the DS lite than the wii2:
With the DS and GBA nintendo found a good strategy in releasing redesigns of the same system with upgrades, thus every few years shaking up the market a bit without having to start from scratch, I assume this is the tactic with the Wii HD.
The clever thing about this tactic is the more hardcore gamers will buy the new version, and then sell their old one on so you’re getting an extra game-buyer as well as selling the system itself. Plus the new model generates some excitement around the console even though its been round for a while.